基于GM-SVR的小样本条件下化工设备可靠性预测

为了准确预测化工设备可靠性趋势，针对化工设备失效寿命数据为小样本的情形，基于灰色估计法与支持向量回归机在小样本数据处理中的优势，建立了失效寿命时间服从三参数威布尔分布的化工设备可靠性模型；结合GM（1，1）和SVR对模型进行参数估计，在压缩机可靠性分析中进行了实例应用，对比分析了最小二乘法、灰色估计法和GM-SVR的估计效果。研究结果表明:GM-SVR对威布尔分布参数的估计精度明显优于最小二乘法和灰色估计法，可以有效地应用于化工设备失效数据为小样本时的可靠性预测。     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

Connecting the Dots: Public Engagement with Environmental Data

Air pollution and other environmental hazards are often imperceptible and need to be made publicly visible. The paper argues for the importance of visualizations in drawing public attention to imperceptible hazards and in providing the public with access to empirical data describing the risks. It also argues for critical inquiry into hazards’ selective visibility as it is produced by visualizations. The impact of visualizations and their selective visibility are considered through the example of a public art project called Particle Falls installed in 2014 in Pittsburgh, a city with a long history of both ignoring air pollution and working to ameliorate this problem. I examine the impact and selective visibility of Particle Falls by considering the underlying production of data, as well as context and support systems for this visualization, and by comparing it with other visualizations of local air quality.     

Enhanced triallyl isocyanurate (TAIC) degradation through application of an O3/UV process: Performance optimization and degradation pathways

• UV/O₃ process had higher TAIC mineralization rate than O₃ process. • Four possible degradation pathways were proposed during TAIC degradation. • pH impacted oxidation processes with pH of 9 achieving maximum efficiency. • CO₃^2– negatively impacted TAIC degradation while HCO₃^– not. • Cl^– can be radicals scavenger only at high concentration (over 500 mg/L Cl^–). Triallyl isocyanurate (TAIC, C₁₂H₁₅N₃O₃) has featured in wastewater treatment as a refractory organic compound due to the significant production capability and negative environmental impact. TAIC degradation was enhanced when an ozone(O₃)/ultraviolet(UV) process was applied compared with the application of an independent O₃ process. Although 99% of TAIC could be degraded in 5 min during both processes, the O₃/UV process had a 70%mineralization rate that was much higher than that of the independent O₃ process (9%) in 30 min. Four possible degradation pathways were proposed based on the organic compounds of intermediate products identified during TAIC degradation through the application of independent O₃ and O₃/UV processes. pH impacted both the direct and indirect oxidation processes. Acidic and alkaline conditions preferred direct and indirect reactions respectively, with a pH of 9 achieving maximum Total Organic Carbon (TOC) removal. Both CO₃^2– and HCO₃^– decreased TOC removal, however only CO₃^2– negatively impacted TAIC degradation. Effects of Cl^– as a radical scavenger became more marked only at high concentrations (over 500 mg/L Cl^–). Particulate and suspended matter could hinder the transmission of ultraviolet light and reduce the production of HO· accordingly.     

突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径，提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力，降低衍生灾害发生概率，在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上，构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型，并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验，模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响，其中事件自身因素起效时间最早，相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久，相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

移动通信技术发展对安全生产影响研究*

为了深入揭示安全生产水平同移动通信技术发展的内在联系，提出安全生产信息技术能力的概念及其监控管理连接、救援响应监测、定位导航追踪3方面子能力的定义，进而通过构建3方面子能力同移动通信主要性能指标之间的关系模型（SPITCMC），并对其进行深入分析和研究。研究结果表明:SPITCMC模型可以准确诠释过去移动通信技术发展对安全生产水平产生的影响，同时可用于预判未来移动通信技术发展对安全生产可能产生的影响程度，从而为后续相关工作的开展提供参考和借鉴。     

瑞典环境法法典化对我国的启示

在《瑞典环境法典》编纂之前,其《环境保护法》存在诸多问题,如:指导性不强、威慑力不足、过于抽象、各环境法律法规之间存在重叠与冲突等,为了使环境领域的立法实现体系化并促进可持续发展,瑞典开始编纂《环境法典》。《瑞典环境法典》采取适度法典化的编纂模式,在编纂过程中注重本土化和国际化的有效结合,最后形成"以法典法为主,辅之以单行法"的环境法律体系。通过对瑞典环境法法典化的特点及原因进行深入研究,并结合我国环境保护领域的立法现状可以得知,我国环境立法应采取适度法典化的立法模式:编纂环境法典应分阶段进行,而不是一蹴而就;应以形式化法律汇编作为起点,逐步向实质性法典编纂迈进。此外,还要加强环境法典编纂的理论研究为法典编纂提供充足的理论支撑。     

环境司法专门化下的特殊环境诉讼规则

我国的环境司法处于发展初期,有关环境纠纷的司法救济程序散落在不同的部门法中。为了维护国家环境安全和公共环境利益,构建环境司法专门化势在必行,但是在特殊的环境保护法院进行专门化的环境审判过程中,出现环境诉讼保护对象的争议性、生态环境损害责任承担的特殊性等问题亟待解决,环境民事公益诉讼和生态环境损害赔偿诉讼等特殊环境诉讼规则应运而生,虽然目前还面临着一些困境,但是整体上构建环境司法体系的进程依然在不断推进。     

基于新常态下环境监察执法的难点和重点分析

随着社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的日益提高,广大人民对环境的要求也达到了一个新的高度。在新常态下,如何加强环境监察执法力度与效率、高效解决环境问题、改善生态环境,成为普遍关注的问题。本文从当下环境监察执法工作中的重点与难点出发,分析了新常态下的环境局势,并给出了几点新常态背景下高效开展环境监察执法工作的措施,以期能够改进环境监察执法现状,促进环境问题的早日解决。